Business News & Financial News

The French consumer confidence deteriorated in June for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting their concerns about public finances and pensions, according to the monthly survey published by INSEE.

The summary indicator of households' opinion on the economic situation fell to -39 from a point at its lowest since May 2009.

It reached down nine points since January and the index is 21 points below its average since the inception of the survey in 1987.

"It can not be merely a melancholy passenger since the index is in sharp decline since the beginning of the year, indicating the growing concern of the French on the country's economic situation" said Alexander Law, an economist at the institute Xerfi.

The survey was conducted among about 2,000 households from May 29 to June 17 in the midst of preparing the pension reform and government announcements on fiscal consolidation but before the cons-performance of the Blue world.

Households have an opinion on virtually stable financial situation, past and future and the opportunity to make major purchases.

Renewed worries ON UNEMPLOYMENT

But they are much more pessimistic about the evolution of living standards and report renewed concerns about unemployment.

The balance of opinion regarding the future standard of living continues to decline in June (2 points from May and 19 points since January) and households think again that the standard of living past has declined (-3 points Compared with May after four months of stability).

While the number of unemployed has risen again in France in May, households are more likely to anticipate an increase in unemployment (5 points).

After falling from 8 to 89 between January 2008 and June 2009, the balance of opinion regarding the outlook for unemployment is down and has stayed at around 65 points, well above the average long period ( 33 points), INSEE said.

In contrast, households believe that past inflation has remained stable and they do not expect higher prices.

"Undoubtedly, the French consumer is in great danger," warned Alexander Law.

"Gradually, all its drivers are switched to red: the scrappage in the car was dismantled, inflation is rising and unemployment has further increased.Turning point of rigor that was initiated in the Hexagon (as elsewhere in Europe) not help matters in the case.

For Alexander Law, "we must draw a cross in 2010 in a contribution worthy of the name of consumption growth, so that this component has assured itself between 50% and 100% of the economic expansion of France for nearly a decade.

"Without additional support, GDP growth hardly reaches 1% this year, so it should be at least double that for hope to create sustainable jobs," said Alexander Law.

Next week will be loaded in statistics but the employment figures, to be published Friday, are probably those expected with more anxiety on Wall Street.

Economists expect 110,000 job losses in June, a large part due to the fact that the government has sent home half of those hired by acting for the census.

The unemployment rate is expected to 9.8% against 9,7% in May

Without a net growth of employment, the U.S. economy likely to frown, the consumer limiting his spending to the minimum necessary.Consumer spending accounts for two thirds or less of GDP.

Two other indicators, among the many to be announced, are also of interest to Wall Street: consumer confidence in June (Tuesday), scheduled withdrawal from May, and promises of real estate sales in May ( Thursday).

The latest indicators published in real estate suggests that the recovery in dock because of the expiry of measures for first-time buyers.

"The truth is that the recession is not over, either a relapse or a straight line without growth, it is anyway probably more real than all the noise around the recovery," said Carl Birkelbach (Birkelbach Investment Securities).

On the whole week, the Dow Jones lost 2.94% the S & P 500 3.65% and the Nasdaq Composite 3.74%.Since the beginning of the year, the Dow lost 2.73%, the S & P and Nasdaq 3.44% 2.01%.

HIGH VOLATILITY, NARROW FLUCTUATIONS

The agreement reached Friday morning in Congress on financial reform is also to be considered a good place for U.S. President Barack Obama urged the world to emulate the United States during the G20 summit in Toronto .

He is likely that volatility will be higher next week, fund managers adjust their portfolios at the end of the quarter.

The volumes tend to fall before long weekend of Independence Day, a factor which may in turn increase volatility.

To the extent that July 4 falls on a Sunday, the U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow.

This promise may be times tense for traders focused on technical elements that the S & P has been able to hold above its 200-day moving average during the week.Some investors believe that a movement below this threshold is a bearish signal.

For Michael Sheldon (RDM Financial Group), the margins of fluctuation of the market will probably narrow in coming weeks.

The next week also see some results of companies, Monsanto and Micron Tech among others, as a prelude to the flood of quarterly results which go off from mid-July.

As usual, Alcoa, one of the Dow 30 stocks, will open fire on July 12.

Corporate profits of the S & P are expected to increase by 26.8% in the second quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.

Bourbon has unveiled a new plan for the period 2011-2015 which includes the sale of its fleet of 16 bulk carriers and other non-core assets for a total of 500 million Euros.

The specialist maritime services to the offshore oil announced in a press release that it has signed an agreement to sell its Bulk with the American Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd for 545 million dollars (440 million euros).

As part of its strategic plan, Bourbon also wishes to invest two billion dollars (1.62 billion euros) in the construction of 80 supply vessels and 64 vessels transporting personnel to operate in 2015 a fleet 600 vessels dedicated logistics services in the continental offshore and deep offshore.

The offshore fleet amounted to 357 ships by end of 2009 and 99 are now in command in the context of its previous strategic plan.

"The bulk current activity will continue to a lesser extent and without the contribution of a fleet that is owned," said the CEO of Bourbon, Jacques de Chateauvieux, during a conference call."This is not disturbed our ability to meet the expectations of our customers."

Jacques de Chateauvieux has also indicated that the sugar activities of Bourbon in Vietnam, among other things, would be sold in addition to bulk carriers.

Apart from sales, financing the new investment program will be provided by changing the payment terms of vessels during construction, 75% of the price now being paid on delivery, as well as a 12-year loan of 400 million dollars granted by the China Exim Bank.

CASH FLOWS FROM POSITIVE in 2013

"The combined effect of generating cash flow from operations, disposal of assets in 2010 and the new payment policy should allow vessels a ratio of debt to equity of less than 0.5 and a ratio net debt / EBITDA of less than 2 by 2015.Bourbon and generate positive cash flow from 2013 onwards, "added the company.

Bourbon also said that its dividend policy would be to distribute approximately 40% of its consolidated net income.

After an average growth of 28% of the activity of its offshore division between 2002 and 2009, the new plan Bourbon displays a target of 17% average annual growth between 2011 and 2015.

The company is also concentrating on increasing the availability rate of the fleet with a goal of 95% against 92% today, and a decline in the index of its operational costs by 4% rate constant 2015.

Bourbon is also a ratio for 2015 gross operating profit (EBITDA) on revenues of 45% for offshore and an EBITDA ratio on capital employed of 20%.

It plans to recruit 5,000 people who join its 7,000 employees.

General Motors expects to publish in July a notice specifying the terms of an IPO that could reach 15 to $ 20 billion, said a source familiar with the matter.

In addition, GM's talks with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo in a deal allowing the public to have easier access to car loans from dealers, said two people familiar with the discussions.

The managing director of GM Ed Whitacre and other executives have said their preference for an IPO this year.Bankers expect an IPO from 10 to 20 billion dollars per sale of a portion of the state participation is 60.8%.

15-20 billion, the IPO would be GM's most prominent feature in the U.S. since the $ 19.7 billion from Visa in March 2008, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

This is also one of the largest IPOs ever held in the United States.

The Treasury has made 50 billion dollars in aid to GM in 2009, including 43 billion in cash and nearly seven billion of direct loans.

The automaker has repaid the loans in April.

GM was not immediately available.

Marc Touati, Associate Director of Global Equities

This topic is more socially and economically. In the current crisis, it is even very controversial, very "dangerous". We must therefore take tweezers in the formulation of the analysis to avoid offending the spell …

I. The model of solidarity to the French: the world's best

Originally the solidarity model, also called French social model may appear as the best in the world. Its basic principle is: high public spending and high tax burdens, but in exchange, through redistribution, greater solidarity and hence less inequality, less unemployment, less poverty and more comfort- be economic.

II.This model of solidarity no longer works

Unfortunately, the past ten years, this model is disintegrating, to the extent that public expenditures increase more and more (56% of French GDP in 2009), the tax burden is among the highest in the world. Despite this extravagant strategy, growth, structural decline, unemployment is around 10% sustainable, poverty rate increases (14% of French people living below the poverty line), including the widening inequalities in income and health and funding of the retirement pay is more assured. So the French model of solidarity is more effective.

Conclusion: how to find a more effective model

This is where the controversy settled: that it must also increase public spending and taxes.If this solution is certainly easier, it is not credible: it no longer works for 20 years and is a runaway. We must therefore stop veiling the face: the only way to make solidarity in France resides in the ability of the latter to the high growth. To achieve this, we must reduce the tax burden for all, make it as fairer, while lowering the inefficient public spending, including operating expenses.

Jean Paul Betbeze, director of studies of the Credit Agricole

Introduction: The word solidarity is one of the most important part of our vocabulary, one of the most sensitive too, because it is at the crossroads between economic and social. He asked how "to society", that is to say, how to combine growth, efficiency, distribution, justice.The issue of solidarity is today more acute because the growth is not at the rendezvous. This leads to questions about growth (innovation, the company …) and the terms of the distribution of wealth, with the idea that certain expenses, sometimes called Solidarity, were too high and / or have not contributed to growth, as might have been expected.

I. The French social model, an exception

Solidarity meeting in fact a set of situations. For one third of expenditure, are shocks that have affected people, health first, another third are economic shocks, mainly unemployment and its consequences for a third and third is the evolution costs associated with aging. Shock people, economic shock and the shock of aging are the sources of expenditure solidarity.We must study their rationale, their legitimacy and, where possible, their effectiveness. Looking in effect say that young people can not but be struck by the solidarity they restricted themselves to considering. The family, themselves and their friends and cronies. Altogether, they and their entourage. This sends the idea, positively, that the best solidarity begins at home and his family (training, job search and lifestyle), but also that state support, social activities are increasingly counted in First the conditions of retirement and old age support. Truth and realism.

II. There can be no solidarity without growth

So we must find ways to live together solidarity and growth, after some excesses were committed and at the inability to continue as before.It can therefore be, in any event, solidarity without legitimacy, without transparency, without verification. That is no explanation for it, without penalty to the excesses or misrepresentation and – increasingly – without education, training, to avoid any shocks. Economic solidarity corresponds to the current difficulties of the job. Unemployment is the brand, but also retirement (since the nonworking are partly taken into account). But support to individual entrepreneurs (with tax benefits) are also a de facto solidarity. A total of solidarity that we measure is often posterior to the problem, it must be proactive. It must be less than a correction, compensation of a preparation: training throughout life support mobility.Solidarity in the event of sickness is also essential, but it can not avoid the growing support in people themselves. Lifestyle, sports, medical conditions are independent of a reduction of medical risk and provide an old age happier, longer and less dependent on solidarity.

Conclusion: Overall, we must squarely address the solidarity at the intersection of economics and welfare, by making clearer the economy (transparency, fairness, efficiency), the general benefit of society.

The action marked rise in BP was Monday at the London Stock Exchange, the oil group has ensured that the containment dome set up the leaking wells in the Gulf of Mexico allowed to siphon off most of the oil 's them escape.

The UK has added a new capture system, to recover most of the dispersed oil would be ready in mid-JuneIt also revised upwards the cost of cleaning the oil spill, now the order of billions of dollars.

Action BP gained 2.7% to 445 pence at 11:18 AM.

BP said Sunday that the dome had helped siphon off the equivalent of 10,500 barrels Saturday, while the leak is estimated between 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.

"Finally we see some positive news for BP," said Peter Hitchens, oil analyst for Panmure Gordon.

Another analyst said that if BP is able to recover most of the oil in the coming month and a half, he will have less difficulty in avoiding a fall in the first quarter dividend.This decrease is claimed by some U.S. politicians.

The oil company also said that there was no change in its policy of exploration and production as a result of the spill.

"The exploration and production activity is a long term one must first make all investigations and draw all the lessons," said Clive Christison, one of the leaders of BP.

The British oil giant BP has already spent 1,250 billion dollars trying to contain the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, "he said Monday, indicating also be collected Saturday a total of 10,500 barrels after the installation of a funnel flight.

Between 3 and 5 June, BP and 16,600 barrels of oil collected with this new device.

Read also: This bumbling boss of BP
See also: Why BP has it all wrong

The amount advanced by the group does not include $ 360 million promised for the construction of artificial islands to Louisiana, he said.

"The optimization (device) continues and we hope to improve the collection in the coming days, but it will be some days yet before we can evaluate the success of this attempt at containment," BP said in a statement.

BP also said it was too early to quantify the total costs of the oil spill caused by the explosion late April of the platform Deepwater Horizon, in which 11 employees were killed.

The U.S. stock markets opened Monday with no real direction, oscillating between higher and lower, the announcement of a rise in industrial orders in Germany in April was not enough to allay fears about the financial difficulties of Hungary.

Rising in the very first exchanges, the Dow Jones 0.14% yielded a few minutes later at 9917.84 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.14% to 1063.37 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27% to 2213.23 points.

In the wake of the Asian and European stock exchanges, markets always react negatively to the budget problems of Hungary after a government spokesman said Friday that the country was unlikely to escape a crisis comparable to that experienced by Greece.

Hungary will have to cut spending by about one to 1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to fulfill the goals set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) this year but the Countries must also revive growth, said Monday the Minister of Economy.

Through several interventions aimed at calming investor fears, Gyorgy Matolcsy said that Hungary will stick to its objective of a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP.

Speaking on CNBC, the Hungarian Minister of Economy said that there had been a number of failures in communication last week and added: "It is absolutely clear that Hungary is not Greece" .

On Saturday, the Hungarian government had already said to stick to its target of 3.8% deficit to GDP ratio in 2010 and was then considered "exaggerated" the official statements that had contributed to a downturn on the eve of Scholarships and a weaker euro.

"We will stick at 3.8% budget deficit this year, it was agreed with the IMF and the EU and accepted by the government and there is no doubt about it, we will stick to this figure "said Gyorgy Matolcsy.

"On the one hand, it is clear that austerity plan was not necessary. On the other hand, no recovery plan for the budget is considered.We will reduce budgetary spending and we will increase revenues and is the action plan of the new government. "

He also reiterated the government's plans for a tax cut, which does raise some questions among analysts about the ability of Budapest to meet its target budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP this year.

INVESTOR Perplexed

"We can not help being perplexed when the Hungarian authorities speak of a much larger budget deficit than expected and at the same time they exclude austerity measures and instead promise of tax cuts," said Lars Christensen, an analyst at Danske Bank.

Investors also continue to be skeptical since the early exchanges, the Budapest Stock Exchange fell more than 5%, while the euro continued to trade at least $ 1.20 and the forint vis-retreated à-vis the euro.

Bank stocks such as OTP Bank and FHB are particularly challenged, the first yielding 4.55%, after having lost 10%, while the second lost 3.41% at 7:30 GMT.

According to the Hungarian press, the Hungarian government could tax the banks to achieve its economic goals.

Gyorgy Matolcsy said on CNBC that by the end of May, 87% of the annual target budget deficit has already reached.

Most economists believe that Hungary is in a stronger position than that of Greece, its deficits and debt levels are not as high as those in Athens.

In fact, the Hungarian government debt has reached about 80% of GDP in 2009, against 133% for Greece expected this year. Budapest also has a surplus on current account last year and reduced its budget deficit to 4% after significant reductions in its spending.

However, the government nonetheless began Saturday a three-day meeting. The announcement of a program of measures is expected by the end of the day.

Gyorgy Matolcsy noted in particular a proposal for the removal of 20% of the 58 different categories of taxes.He hoped that a radical program of tax cuts three years could be launched this year.

Spanish Grifols announced Monday the launch of a friendly takeover bid of 3.4 billion dollars (2.8 billion euros) over the U.S. Talecris Biotherapeutics specializes in the treatment of plasma in order to develop in the blood products.

For each action Talecris, Grifols offers $ 19 cash and 0.641 new share without voting rights.

A bid that shows a 53% premium over the average of thirty days of share price of U.S. laboratory.

There is also a good transaction for Cerberus, which owns, through a subsidiary, nearly 49% stake in Talecris.

"They pay a high premium over the market price that the market may not wish to reward short term," said Dirk Schnittke, analyst at CM Capital Markets.

"But it is a good strategic choice for medium-long term and they would not have achieved without preparing their project."

Around 10:30 GMT, Grifols fell nearly 5% to 8.81 euros, while the Madrid Stock Exchange was at equilibrium at the same time.

Including debt, the total redemption amounts to four billion dollars.To finance part of the transaction, Grifols will issue up to 84,000,000 new shares for 900 million dollars.

The Spanish group said Monday he hoped for about $ 230 million of annual synergies of the transaction, unanimously approved by directors of both companies and recommended to their respective shareholders.

The transaction should be accretive from the first year and increase earnings per share of 30% during the second year.

Grifols has given finance its deal, expected to close in the second half, to a syndicate of banks including Deutsche Bank, Nomura, BBVA, BNP Paribas, HSBC and Morgan Stanley.