Retail sales are backed up against all odds by 0.3% in Germany in July, posting a second consecutive month of decline in monthly, announced Tuesday the Federal Office of Statistics.
Over a year, retail sales rose 0.8%.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a monthly increase of 0.5% and an increase of 1.4% over one year.
The spectacular mergers and acquisitions announced in recent weeks nourish hopes of a general resumption of trading but the French bankers polled by Reuters remain cautious optimism for the fall.
The hostile bid of nearly $ 40 billion launched the world's leading fertilizer Potash or the stock market battle for control of the data storage company 3PAR have been seen by some analysts as a sign announcing a possible new cycle.
"Such operations raise a little mercato" judge a banker, a comparison of sports in the same vein as the one launched during the World Cup soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo by: "The goals is like ketchup: when they arrive, they all come together. "
Announcements and takeover rumors are linked together with a consistent and disturbing intended target size in almost all sectors: automobiles Alfa Romeo, the Australian brewer Foster's with the bank with Nedbank of South Africa, insurance with the UK's Aviva or energy with Polish ENEA.
Figures gathered by Thomson Reuters for the French market is also impressive, even excluding the approximately $ 20 billion Sanofi-Aventis would be willing to spend on the U.S. Genzyme.
THE CONTEXT IS BEST
Transactions involving at least one French company are, at August 25, two times larger in value than in 2009 although it remains far from achieving the speculative frenzy in 2006.
On August 25, 2006, volumes amounted to 239 billion dollars, against 105 billion reached Wednesday.
"Generally, we can say that the context is better than the last two years and the probability of operations is improving, although significant uncertainties remain," Thierry J. Silver, Global Head of 'M & A activity at Societe Generale.
"There is no reason to believe that the major cross-border operations will slow.They are now once again well received by shareholders when the companies have demonstrated their ability to cope with the crisis, "said the banker.
The poor market performance since the beginning of the year is still a risk factor and observers recall that many transactions or IPOs had to be canceled after the crash loosened markets in the first quarter .
MOTION FRAGILE
"We are seeing a recovery in 2010, but this movement will remain fragile until the current uncertainty about valuations persist," the judge for his part in a research note Rivalland Jean-Claude, a lawyer with Allen & Overy in Paris.
The degradation of the sovereign rating of Ireland by Standard & Poor's has also recalled Tuesday that the euro zone was not yet out of the rut and the specter of a relapse of the U.S. economy is also a source of concern.
"The problems on the sovereign credit may resurface, CFOs remain cautious because they do not want to take full credit crunch, they must restructure their debts after a major operation," noted for its share Philip Caraman, a banker from UBS to Paris.
"As long as there is no more visible on sovereign risk, the volumes remain as low as three or four years," Judge said.
For Monique Cohen, managing partner of private equity firm Apax, one of the keys to continued activity is the continued financing of transactions by banks, a vital issue for the private equity industry.
"We can not consider access to the debt as an asset of the moment," she said, noting however that "no new restrictions on debt, many LBO (leveraged transactions) should be provided be in September.
To some bankers, corporate strategic imperatives also explain that they go ahead even if the timing is not ideal.
Some major transactions announced or expected to emerge this logic rather than a genuine recovery in overall mergers and acquisitions, they believe.
"In pharma we got to a point where the economy is good or bad, the problems must be addressed," said a banker based in London.
Large groups such as Sanofi-Aventis and not have enough new molecules for activity in the coming years and must grow through acquisitions.
Similarly, some companies must gain control of new technologies or new markets and therefore have to attack even when conditions are not ideal.
"It's a matter of life or death," Judge the same banker.
The Canadian group called Potash Monday its shareholders to reject hostile takeover bid from mining giant BHP Billiton and said he was discussing with other possible suitors for an alternative giving it a better value.
The world's largest producer of potash added in a statement expected to bring proposals have higher than 39 billion dollars (30.7 billion euros) made by BHP or other strategic options.
Discussions were held with several parties in order to generate higher offers, he said.
According to Bloomberg, Potash has been contacted by the Chinese and Brazilian Vale Sinochem.
The action Potash gained 1% in pre-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange, to $ 151.
The action BHP gained about 2% in London, to 1858.5 pence.
Violent protests in tens of thousands of textile workers in Bangladesh have led to the closure Tuesday of 700 plants supplying most major brands of western clothing.
The riot police fired rubber bullets and tear gas on the workers in the industrial area of Ashulia, north of the capital Dhaka.In this sector, workers, requiring a higher minimum wage of 25-70 dollars, have erected barricades of old tires, set fire to trucks for delivery and launched missiles at the police for fourth consecutive day.
Some 800,000 workers spend many factories closed down 700, but "tens of thousands" more are on the streets, forcing shops to close, "said deputy chief of police in Dhaka Monowar Hosain.
Plants that have been forced to close their doors provide Western chains such as Wal-Mart, H & M, Tesco, Carrefour and Metro, as well as major brands like Tommy Hilfiger, GAP and Levi Strauss. The workers demanded wage of at least 5,000 taka (70 dollars) per month.The current minimum wage set in 2006 is only $ 25.
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Under the patronage of manufacturers and exporters of textiles (BGMEA), the violent protests, which began Saturday, has created a climate of "panic and anarchy, forcing factories to close until further notice. "More than 50 factories were ransacked by protesters who prevented and deliver orders on time, resulting in losses totaling millions of dollars," said Vice-President of the BGMEA, M. Mohiuddin Shafiul Islam.
Labour Minister Mosharraf Hossain promised after an emergency meeting with the management of textile wage increases, but has threatened "strong action" demonstrators.Textiles account for 80% of annual exports of Bangladesh and its factories employing 40% of the workforce of the industrial countries, most of them women.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has agreed to sell nearly 2.4 billion euros of its majority stake in its subsidiary WorldPay payment systems to two private equity funds, the latest step in its restructuring plan .
After Friday increased its quarterly results, RBS said it would sell 80% of its business Global Merchant Services, which oversees WorldPay to Advent International and Bain Capital in a transaction valuing the company up to 2.03 billion pounds (2.4 billion euros).
Advent and Bain were in exclusive talks for this operation since late July, had said last month a source close to the matter.Analysts had estimated the amount of the transaction between two and 2.5 billion pounds.
The two companies capital that they are looking to develop activities WorldPay and added that they could conclude other acquisitions.
RBS will however keep a stake of about 20% in WorldPay.The added value generated by this transaction would be approximately 850 million pounds and increase the solvency ratio "core Tier 1" bank by about 30 basis points, the bank said.
"A NEW IMPORTANT STEP"
RBS will receive an initial cash payment of £ 1.7 billion once the deal is finalized and could obtain additional 200 million depending on performance WorldPay.
"The sale of Global Merchant Services is a new milestone in the restructuring program the company," said chief financial officer, Bruce Van Saun, in a statement.
Around 4:45 p.m. GMT, RBS yielded 0.38%, to 51.8 pence in London Stock Exchange, outperforming the Stoxx 600 index, however, brings together the main European banking stocks, which retreated at the same time by 0.74%.
This occurs after the Wednesday of the sale of 318 branches RBS UK counterpart Santander for about 1.65 billion pounds.
Before announcing the sale of WorldPay, the bank reported Friday in an increased profit in the second quarter due to recovery of its loan portfolio and improved its net interest margin, while bad debts Ireland remain problematic.
Several European banks such as HSBC, BNP Paribas and Barclays, have reported strong results this week in favor of a reduction in expenses related to bad debts, but some investors are questioning their prospects.
"THE PERFORMANCE IS A LITTLE LIGHT GBM"
RBS, for its part reported an operating profit of 869 million pounds for the quarter ended June 30, after a profit of 713 million in the first quarter.
The retail banking and commercial banking at RBS have seen their net banking income increased during the quarter but the division of investment bank GBM has had difficult times with a 31% drop in GDP over the first quarter.
"The performance of the GBM is a bit light, but the plus side, the British retail banking seems to be doing well," said Joseph Dickerson, an analyst at London brokerage firm Execution.
RBS said it had seen no return of the investment bank in July, which is fueling fears that the sector does not meet the expectations throughout the year if the soft trend in May and June is confirmed.
"July is generally consistent with the trend of the previous two months," said Stephen Hester. "If customers, uncertain, remain on the sidelines, there is less money in the investment bank."
Impairment losses accounted for 2.49 billion pounds in the second quarter, against 2.68 billion in the first.Excluding the gain on the recovery of its own debt, the bank posted a net income of 250 million pounds, down from the first three months of the year.
Electrolux reported an operating profit below expectations for the second quarter and reaffirmed its forecast of a rise in demand this year in its main markets.
Operating income was 1.5 billion kronor (157 million) excluding exceptional items, against one billion kroner in the second quarter of 2009.The 17 banks and brokerages surveyed by Reuters had expected a net profit of 1.6 billion kronor for the period Apr-Jun 2010.
At 7:36 GMT, yielded 5.0% to 158.70 kronor on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
"The demand for appliances on the group's main markets should be growing during 2010," the Swedish group in a statement.
The second largest manufacturer of household appliances has been forced to sharply reduce its costs to cope with the slowdown in consumption last year but said its main markets had continued to recover in the second quarter.
Electrolux said the North American market had risen for the third consecutive quarter after 13 quarters of contraction.
"At the industry level, the supply of aircraft destined for the United States in the second quarter would have increased approximately 10%," the group said.
"The entire European market has stabilized during the quarter, with major markets such as Germany, France and Sweden showing positive trends," he added, while noting that southern markets Europe had suffered a sharp slowdown over the period.
'The demand in eastern Europe has increased somewhat, further stated Electrolux.
The action marked rise in BP was Monday at the London Stock Exchange, the oil group has ensured that the containment dome set up the leaking wells in the Gulf of Mexico allowed to siphon off most of the oil 's them escape.
The UK has added a new capture system, to recover most of the dispersed oil would be ready in mid-JuneIt also revised upwards the cost of cleaning the oil spill, now the order of billions of dollars.
Action BP gained 2.7% to 445 pence at 11:18 AM.
BP said Sunday that the dome had helped siphon off the equivalent of 10,500 barrels Saturday, while the leak is estimated between 12,000 and 19,000 barrels per day.
"Finally we see some positive news for BP," said Peter Hitchens, oil analyst for Panmure Gordon.
Another analyst said that if BP is able to recover most of the oil in the coming month and a half, he will have less difficulty in avoiding a fall in the first quarter dividend.This decrease is claimed by some U.S. politicians.
The oil company also said that there was no change in its policy of exploration and production as a result of the spill.
"The exploration and production activity is a long term one must first make all investigations and draw all the lessons," said Clive Christison, one of the leaders of BP.
Hungary will have to cut spending by about one to 1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to fulfill the goals set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) this year but the Countries must also revive growth, said Monday the Minister of Economy.
Through several interventions aimed at calming investor fears, Gyorgy Matolcsy said that Hungary will stick to its objective of a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP.
Speaking on CNBC, the Hungarian Minister of Economy said that there had been a number of failures in communication last week and added: "It is absolutely clear that Hungary is not Greece" .
On Saturday, the Hungarian government had already said to stick to its target of 3.8% deficit to GDP ratio in 2010 and was then considered "exaggerated" the official statements that had contributed to a downturn on the eve of Scholarships and a weaker euro.
"We will stick at 3.8% budget deficit this year, it was agreed with the IMF and the EU and accepted by the government and there is no doubt about it, we will stick to this figure "said Gyorgy Matolcsy.
"On the one hand, it is clear that austerity plan was not necessary. On the other hand, no recovery plan for the budget is considered.We will reduce budgetary spending and we will increase revenues and is the action plan of the new government. "
He also reiterated the government's plans for a tax cut, which does raise some questions among analysts about the ability of Budapest to meet its target budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP this year.
INVESTOR Perplexed
"We can not help being perplexed when the Hungarian authorities speak of a much larger budget deficit than expected and at the same time they exclude austerity measures and instead promise of tax cuts," said Lars Christensen, an analyst at Danske Bank.
Investors also continue to be skeptical since the early exchanges, the Budapest Stock Exchange fell more than 5%, while the euro continued to trade at least $ 1.20 and the forint vis-retreated à-vis the euro.
Bank stocks such as OTP Bank and FHB are particularly challenged, the first yielding 4.55%, after having lost 10%, while the second lost 3.41% at 7:30 GMT.
According to the Hungarian press, the Hungarian government could tax the banks to achieve its economic goals.
Gyorgy Matolcsy said on CNBC that by the end of May, 87% of the annual target budget deficit has already reached.
Most economists believe that Hungary is in a stronger position than that of Greece, its deficits and debt levels are not as high as those in Athens.
In fact, the Hungarian government debt has reached about 80% of GDP in 2009, against 133% for Greece expected this year. Budapest also has a surplus on current account last year and reduced its budget deficit to 4% after significant reductions in its spending.
However, the government nonetheless began Saturday a three-day meeting. The announcement of a program of measures is expected by the end of the day.
Gyorgy Matolcsy noted in particular a proposal for the removal of 20% of the 58 different categories of taxes.He hoped that a radical program of tax cuts three years could be launched this year.
