The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 1.4% in France this year, as the government, but is more cautious thereafter, and questions whether the government deficit back below 3% of GDP before 2015.
In its annual report on France on Friday, the IMF welcomed the "ambitious reform program" implemented by the authorities, welcomed the "major reform" of pensions and notes that French banks are strong, as the Recent tests have shown the organized resistance in the European Union.
But he stressed the risks to future growth, although France has fared better than its neighbors to the recession, and recommends giving priority to a "substantial and credible rebalancing" of public finances.
After a contraction of 2.5% in 2009, the institution sees gross domestic product of France grow 1.4% this year – the same prediction that the government – and by 1.6% in 2011, 1.8 % in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013.
These estimates are similar to those published in the April World Economic Outlook of the IMF, while those on the deficit is more optimistic.
After 7.5% in 2009 and 8.0% in 2010 (again forecasting government), the deficit would decrease to 6.1% of GDP in 2011.In April the IMF was around 7%.
"This is the result of a conference on fiscal deficits in July and pension reform in June," Harris says one in Bercy where we judge the IMF and Paris "on the same wavelength" .
"It's a good report of the IMF for economic policy the government," says one.
IMF WANTS THE ASSUMPTIONS OF "REALISTIC"
However, the IMF is the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2013 and, according to his script, is that in 2015 he would return below the 3% limit set by the Maastricht Treaty.
The stability program of France plans to achieve the 3% deficit in 2013, subject to a growth of 2.5% from next year.
"To make the effort of more credible, it is important to establish the framework for budgetary planning on realistic macroeconomic assumptions," the IMF in his notes, echoing criticism by the European Commission issued in March when he was sent to the stability program.
During a conference call, one of the reviewers, Erik de Vrij, however relativized this message indicating that the deficit target reduced to 3% in 2013 could be achieved if the pension reform is completed.
"By including the pension reform, there is a good chance of reaching 3% deficit by 2013," he said.
Published annually after the visit of a mission, the IMF notes is rather complimentary to the government's economic policy but calls for greater efforts on reforms and fiscal consolidation.
"A fragile recovery is underway in France," it said.
Her limited exposure to international trade, the existence of a strong enough financial sector, the importance of social safety nets and measures to relaunch "well designed" have enabled France to resist the global crisis that most comparable countries, the IMF noted.
But, he adds, 'the characteristics of the French economy, which have protected partly during the recession are also those who probably will slow the recovery.
"PUSHED MORE INITIATIVES"
The unemployment rate of 9.5% in 2009 to reach 10.0% on average this year and peaking at 10.1% in 2011, before easing to 9.7% in 2012 and 9.2% in 2013 according to the IMF.
At the same time, public debt would reach 84.3 in 2010% of GDP against 78.1% in 2009 and would continue to deteriorate until 2013, when this ratio reach 90.3%.
"The imminent consolidation of public finances in France and most European countries will weigh on demand, and concerns that continue to generate sovereign risk require continued vigilance," said the Fund, requesting the authorities to "implement with their energy reform program to support the recovery. "
On the fiscal consolidation policy, the IMF considers that the measures already announced on revenues and expenditures are "large" but said that "further efforts are needed at all levels of government to achieve fiscal consolidation is the medium term ".
The institution also delivers a good report on the reform of banking regulation, acknowledging in particular the establishment of the supervisory authority which has for the month of March all supervisors and approval of the bank and insurance in France.