The spectacular mergers and acquisitions announced in recent weeks nourish hopes of a general resumption of trading but the French bankers polled by Reuters remain cautious optimism for the fall.
The hostile bid of nearly $ 40 billion launched the world's leading fertilizer Potash or the stock market battle for control of the data storage company 3PAR have been seen by some analysts as a sign announcing a possible new cycle.
"Such operations raise a little mercato" judge a banker, a comparison of sports in the same vein as the one launched during the World Cup soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo by: "The goals is like ketchup: when they arrive, they all come together. "
Announcements and takeover rumors are linked together with a consistent and disturbing intended target size in almost all sectors: automobiles Alfa Romeo, the Australian brewer Foster's with the bank with Nedbank of South Africa, insurance with the UK's Aviva or energy with Polish ENEA.
Figures gathered by Thomson Reuters for the French market is also impressive, even excluding the approximately $ 20 billion Sanofi-Aventis would be willing to spend on the U.S. Genzyme.
THE CONTEXT IS BEST
Transactions involving at least one French company are, at August 25, two times larger in value than in 2009 although it remains far from achieving the speculative frenzy in 2006.
On August 25, 2006, volumes amounted to 239 billion dollars, against 105 billion reached Wednesday.
"Generally, we can say that the context is better than the last two years and the probability of operations is improving, although significant uncertainties remain," Thierry J. Silver, Global Head of 'M & A activity at Societe Generale.
"There is no reason to believe that the major cross-border operations will slow.They are now once again well received by shareholders when the companies have demonstrated their ability to cope with the crisis, "said the banker.
The poor market performance since the beginning of the year is still a risk factor and observers recall that many transactions or IPOs had to be canceled after the crash loosened markets in the first quarter .
MOTION FRAGILE
"We are seeing a recovery in 2010, but this movement will remain fragile until the current uncertainty about valuations persist," the judge for his part in a research note Rivalland Jean-Claude, a lawyer with Allen & Overy in Paris.
The degradation of the sovereign rating of Ireland by Standard & Poor's has also recalled Tuesday that the euro zone was not yet out of the rut and the specter of a relapse of the U.S. economy is also a source of concern.
"The problems on the sovereign credit may resurface, CFOs remain cautious because they do not want to take full credit crunch, they must restructure their debts after a major operation," noted for its share Philip Caraman, a banker from UBS to Paris.
"As long as there is no more visible on sovereign risk, the volumes remain as low as three or four years," Judge said.
For Monique Cohen, managing partner of private equity firm Apax, one of the keys to continued activity is the continued financing of transactions by banks, a vital issue for the private equity industry.
"We can not consider access to the debt as an asset of the moment," she said, noting however that "no new restrictions on debt, many LBO (leveraged transactions) should be provided be in September.
To some bankers, corporate strategic imperatives also explain that they go ahead even if the timing is not ideal.
Some major transactions announced or expected to emerge this logic rather than a genuine recovery in overall mergers and acquisitions, they believe.
"In pharma we got to a point where the economy is good or bad, the problems must be addressed," said a banker based in London.
Large groups such as Sanofi-Aventis and not have enough new molecules for activity in the coming years and must grow through acquisitions.
Similarly, some companies must gain control of new technologies or new markets and therefore have to attack even when conditions are not ideal.
"It's a matter of life or death," Judge the same banker.
