Business News & Financial News

The spectacular mergers and acquisitions announced in recent weeks nourish hopes of a general resumption of trading but the French bankers polled by Reuters remain cautious optimism for the fall.

The hostile bid of nearly $ 40 billion launched the world's leading fertilizer Potash or the stock market battle for control of the data storage company 3PAR have been seen by some analysts as a sign announcing a possible new cycle.

"Such operations raise a little mercato" judge a banker, a comparison of sports in the same vein as the one launched during the World Cup soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo by: "The goals is like ketchup: when they arrive, they all come together. "

Announcements and takeover rumors are linked together with a consistent and disturbing intended target size in almost all sectors: automobiles Alfa Romeo, the Australian brewer Foster's with the bank with Nedbank of South Africa, insurance with the UK's Aviva or energy with Polish ENEA.

Figures gathered by Thomson Reuters for the French market is also impressive, even excluding the approximately $ 20 billion Sanofi-Aventis would be willing to spend on the U.S. Genzyme.

THE CONTEXT IS BEST

Transactions involving at least one French company are, at August 25, two times larger in value than in 2009 although it remains far from achieving the speculative frenzy in 2006.

On August 25, 2006, volumes amounted to 239 billion dollars, against 105 billion reached Wednesday.

"Generally, we can say that the context is better than the last two years and the probability of operations is improving, although significant uncertainties remain," Thierry J. Silver, Global Head of 'M & A activity at Societe Generale.

"There is no reason to believe that the major cross-border operations will slow.They are now once again well received by shareholders when the companies have demonstrated their ability to cope with the crisis, "said the banker.

The poor market performance since the beginning of the year is still a risk factor and observers recall that many transactions or IPOs had to be canceled after the crash loosened markets in the first quarter .

MOTION FRAGILE

"We are seeing a recovery in 2010, but this movement will remain fragile until the current uncertainty about valuations persist," the judge for his part in a research note Rivalland Jean-Claude, a lawyer with Allen & Overy in Paris.

The degradation of the sovereign rating of Ireland by Standard & Poor's has also recalled Tuesday that the euro zone was not yet out of the rut and the specter of a relapse of the U.S. economy is also a source of concern.

"The problems on the sovereign credit may resurface, CFOs remain cautious because they do not want to take full credit crunch, they must restructure their debts after a major operation," noted for its share Philip Caraman, a banker from UBS to Paris.

"As long as there is no more visible on sovereign risk, the volumes remain as low as three or four years," Judge said.

For Monique Cohen, managing partner of private equity firm Apax, one of the keys to continued activity is the continued financing of transactions by banks, a vital issue for the private equity industry.

"We can not consider access to the debt as an asset of the moment," she said, noting however that "no new restrictions on debt, many LBO (leveraged transactions) should be provided be in September.

To some bankers, corporate strategic imperatives also explain that they go ahead even if the timing is not ideal.

Some major transactions announced or expected to emerge this logic rather than a genuine recovery in overall mergers and acquisitions, they believe.

"In pharma we got to a point where the economy is good or bad, the problems must be addressed," said a banker based in London.

Large groups such as Sanofi-Aventis and not have enough new molecules for activity in the coming years and must grow through acquisitions.

Similarly, some companies must gain control of new technologies or new markets and therefore have to attack even when conditions are not ideal.

"It's a matter of life or death," Judge the same banker.

Wall Street could fall this week in a market upturn phase, but will require a new set of quarterly results convincing to feed the stock market rally that started in U.S. last weekend.

The markets have been digesting macroeconomic statistics found disappointing and pessimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the U.S. economy, but the announcement of strong quarterly results by companies suggest a brighter future.

But this week, others are expected quarterly publications such as the oil company Chevron, DuPont chemist or the aircraft manufacturer Boeing.Good news would reassure investors.

Investors have had to readjust their forecasts for the economy with the latest statistics that portend a slowdown in the pace of recovery.

These data have also created divisions in the markets about the possibility of a new recession.If the concerns of a return to "W" began to fade among investors, publications positive would result in rising markets.

FIGURES OF THE GROWTH EXPECTED

"All indicators continue to signal growth, simply we are not moving as quickly as when we came out of the recession, which is totally logical," said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC, adding that the downward phase of the contract is completed.

He considers in particular that the beginning of July should be the low point of annual contracts.

Analysts hope to cheer the quarterly results this week after figures better than expected and forecast annual improvements announced last week by industry groups.

But the economy remains crucial. The series of publications macroeconomic expected this week will also be particularly monitored to determine the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

The Fed should publish its Beige Book Wednesday on the economic conditions, while the figures for new home sales will launch the week Monday.

On Tuesday, it is the Standard & Poor's / Case Schiller home prices and consumer confidence, which will be followed, before investors only look the next day on orders of durable goods.

But it was the day Friday with the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. second quarter to be expected this week.

Marc Touati, Associate Director of Global Equities

This topic is more socially and economically. In the current crisis, it is even very controversial, very "dangerous". We must therefore take tweezers in the formulation of the analysis to avoid offending the spell …

I. The model of solidarity to the French: the world's best

Originally the solidarity model, also called French social model may appear as the best in the world. Its basic principle is: high public spending and high tax burdens, but in exchange, through redistribution, greater solidarity and hence less inequality, less unemployment, less poverty and more comfort- be economic.

II.This model of solidarity no longer works

Unfortunately, the past ten years, this model is disintegrating, to the extent that public expenditures increase more and more (56% of French GDP in 2009), the tax burden is among the highest in the world. Despite this extravagant strategy, growth, structural decline, unemployment is around 10% sustainable, poverty rate increases (14% of French people living below the poverty line), including the widening inequalities in income and health and funding of the retirement pay is more assured. So the French model of solidarity is more effective.

Conclusion: how to find a more effective model

This is where the controversy settled: that it must also increase public spending and taxes.If this solution is certainly easier, it is not credible: it no longer works for 20 years and is a runaway. We must therefore stop veiling the face: the only way to make solidarity in France resides in the ability of the latter to the high growth. To achieve this, we must reduce the tax burden for all, make it as fairer, while lowering the inefficient public spending, including operating expenses.

Jean Paul Betbeze, director of studies of the Credit Agricole

Introduction: The word solidarity is one of the most important part of our vocabulary, one of the most sensitive too, because it is at the crossroads between economic and social. He asked how "to society", that is to say, how to combine growth, efficiency, distribution, justice.The issue of solidarity is today more acute because the growth is not at the rendezvous. This leads to questions about growth (innovation, the company …) and the terms of the distribution of wealth, with the idea that certain expenses, sometimes called Solidarity, were too high and / or have not contributed to growth, as might have been expected.

I. The French social model, an exception

Solidarity meeting in fact a set of situations. For one third of expenditure, are shocks that have affected people, health first, another third are economic shocks, mainly unemployment and its consequences for a third and third is the evolution costs associated with aging. Shock people, economic shock and the shock of aging are the sources of expenditure solidarity.We must study their rationale, their legitimacy and, where possible, their effectiveness. Looking in effect say that young people can not but be struck by the solidarity they restricted themselves to considering. The family, themselves and their friends and cronies. Altogether, they and their entourage. This sends the idea, positively, that the best solidarity begins at home and his family (training, job search and lifestyle), but also that state support, social activities are increasingly counted in First the conditions of retirement and old age support. Truth and realism.

II. There can be no solidarity without growth

So we must find ways to live together solidarity and growth, after some excesses were committed and at the inability to continue as before.It can therefore be, in any event, solidarity without legitimacy, without transparency, without verification. That is no explanation for it, without penalty to the excesses or misrepresentation and – increasingly – without education, training, to avoid any shocks. Economic solidarity corresponds to the current difficulties of the job. Unemployment is the brand, but also retirement (since the nonworking are partly taken into account). But support to individual entrepreneurs (with tax benefits) are also a de facto solidarity. A total of solidarity that we measure is often posterior to the problem, it must be proactive. It must be less than a correction, compensation of a preparation: training throughout life support mobility.Solidarity in the event of sickness is also essential, but it can not avoid the growing support in people themselves. Lifestyle, sports, medical conditions are independent of a reduction of medical risk and provide an old age happier, longer and less dependent on solidarity.

Conclusion: Overall, we must squarely address the solidarity at the intersection of economics and welfare, by making clearer the economy (transparency, fairness, efficiency), the general benefit of society.

The U.S. stock markets opened Monday with no real direction, oscillating between higher and lower, the announcement of a rise in industrial orders in Germany in April was not enough to allay fears about the financial difficulties of Hungary.

Rising in the very first exchanges, the Dow Jones 0.14% yielded a few minutes later at 9917.84 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.14% to 1063.37 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27% to 2213.23 points.

In the wake of the Asian and European stock exchanges, markets always react negatively to the budget problems of Hungary after a government spokesman said Friday that the country was unlikely to escape a crisis comparable to that experienced by Greece.

Spanish Grifols announced Monday the launch of a friendly takeover bid of 3.4 billion dollars (2.8 billion euros) over the U.S. Talecris Biotherapeutics specializes in the treatment of plasma in order to develop in the blood products.

For each action Talecris, Grifols offers $ 19 cash and 0.641 new share without voting rights.

A bid that shows a 53% premium over the average of thirty days of share price of U.S. laboratory.

There is also a good transaction for Cerberus, which owns, through a subsidiary, nearly 49% stake in Talecris.

"They pay a high premium over the market price that the market may not wish to reward short term," said Dirk Schnittke, analyst at CM Capital Markets.

"But it is a good strategic choice for medium-long term and they would not have achieved without preparing their project."

Around 10:30 GMT, Grifols fell nearly 5% to 8.81 euros, while the Madrid Stock Exchange was at equilibrium at the same time.

Including debt, the total redemption amounts to four billion dollars.To finance part of the transaction, Grifols will issue up to 84,000,000 new shares for 900 million dollars.

The Spanish group said Monday he hoped for about $ 230 million of annual synergies of the transaction, unanimously approved by directors of both companies and recommended to their respective shareholders.

The transaction should be accretive from the first year and increase earnings per share of 30% during the second year.

Grifols has given finance its deal, expected to close in the second half, to a syndicate of banks including Deutsche Bank, Nomura, BBVA, BNP Paribas, HSBC and Morgan Stanley.