Bank stocks were the main victims of a new Black Monday stock market. But according to Dominique Dequidt, fund manager at KBL Richelieu, concerns about them are exaggerated.
Fears about the banking stocks have been very heavy on Monday on all European markets. In Paris, Societe Generale tumbled 8.64% to 20.25 euros, signing the largest decrease in the CAC 40. BNP Paribas lost 6.34% to 31.30 euros, Crédit Agricole (-5.51% to 5.84 euros) and Natixis (-5.68% to 2.55 euros). In the background, the difficulties of Greece, the threat of a lawsuit in the United States against 16 banks – including Societe Generale – for their responsibility in the subprime crisis, and the desire to recapitalize European banks by the IMF .Dominique Dequidt but remains optimistic.
What are the fears about banks today?
First, the gradual disappearance of the sovereign rating in Greece opened the door to further degradation, Ireland and Portugal in the lead. This is one of the great fears in the market today. Investors fear losses that may result in banking stocks that are exposed. Indeed some of the U.S. money market funds that had liquidity of investments in Europe have rather taken off the market last week. The second point is the deterioration of the American note in the summer. She amplified these fears and stoked fears of slowing global growth.
These fears are justified?
It is not really justified, at least in the short term. It is mainly a crisis of confidence that undermines the market.But look closer, banks are healthy. When we look at the credits granted by banking institutions in Europe, there is no need to panic. They rose 3% in the first quarter and 4% in the second. And despite a rather European growth at half the second quarter.
Banks are robust enough to withstand the risk of European sovereign debt and the threat of global recession?
Yes, in the event that we are not witnessing a collapse of the banking system. But there is no need to be as alarmist as the IMF on the recapitalization of banks. They have made big profits in the first half. BNP Paribas, despite its 450 million refinancing of provisions in the Greek debt, posted a profit of more than 2 billion euros in the first quarter.
But banks are very fearful to lend to each other.The level of cash placed with the European Central Bank has reached 151 billion euros Friday …
We are in a tense situation since the beginning of August the fears are heavy on the strength of some banks. Hence the difficulty they face to lend to each other. This level is certainly high compared to six months ago. But we are still far from the amounts of their outstanding 2008 in which the ECB had reached astronomical levels.
The trial of the U.S. federal government against 16 global banks – including the general society – he may weigh on an already difficult climate?
I do not think, at least for France and Europe. They are not involved in the trial. And regarding the risks of fines, it is called, in the extreme case, a sentence that would amount to hundreds of millions of euros.This is a difficult but there is no major concern to have.
To what extent can we expect an impact on the real economy if the situation worsens?
Banks have made a big effort on their balance sheets, it is not in the same situation of overheating than during the crisis. They are now well prepared for the state of distrust of the markets. But the phenomenon of double-dip recession may occur. 3 months ago investors imagined a soft landing in growth after the good figures of 2010. Today expectations are more cautious, and go up to imagine a recession in 2012.