"Who's next?" After the decision by Standard & Poor's rating to degrade the U.S., the sustainability of the note of other countries "triple A", including the United Kingdom and France, raises questions.
The rating "AAA" allows recipient countries to finance the best conditions in the bond markets, that is to say interest rates very low, also called "risk-free rate."
For now, Standard & Poor's is the only one of the three major rating agencies to have made the decision to deprive the U.S. of their triple-A to bring them to "AA +".Moody's and Fitch have confirmed their notes "Aaa" and "AAA".
When asked about France, officials from Standard & Poor's affirmed the "AAA" of Paris and its stable outlook.
"There is no need to worry about its solvency," said Carol Sirou, president of S & P France, Liberation.
This does not preclude some analysts to express concerns, and others estimate that a new exclusion from the club of "triple A" is not imminent.
Mohamed El-Erian, managing director of Pimco, believes that it is difficult to imagine that (…) S & P does not follow with at least one of the other members of the club AAA sovereign. "
"If this were to materialize, and involve a country like France for example, would complicate efforts, already fragile, made in Europe to save the country from the periphery," he adds.
More cautious strategies Commerzank wrote in a note that "the degradation (of the United States, Ed) suggests that other countries (…) 'AAA', such as France, might begin to feel the wind of the bullet ".
But Ciaran O'Hagan, rates strategist at Societe Generale, told Reuters on Saturday not to expect the degradation of another "triple A", including that of France.
The primary deficit IMPORTANT FROM FRANCE
Until the assumptions of one or the other materialize, France and Germany have issued Monday in short-term debt in much better conditions, that is to say, at rates significantly lower than the week or last month.
On the long curves of their interest rates, the France and Germany (part of the euro area), who benefited from risk aversion in the past weeks, Monday saw the return on their loans to 10 tender years together.
The criticisms are focused on France, its budget ratios – the worst of the group of "triple A" in the euro area (France, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg).
The public deficit, which reached 7.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year in France, goes beyond the level of other "triple A" in the euro area.
The European Commission expects that this gap will remain this year, the French deficit to rise to 5.8% at end 2011 against 3.7% for the Netherlands and Austria, 2.0% for Germany and a , 0% for Finland and Luxembourg.
France is the only one of these countries show a primary deficit (excluding debt service) important. The Commission should represent 3.1% of GDP in France in late 2011 against 1.6% in the Netherlands, Austria 0.9% and 0.5% in Luxembourg.Germany and Finland for their part should end the year with a primary surplus (0.4% and 0.2% respectively).
Other major economies outside the euro area recorded "triple A" by the three main agencies are the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Norway and Switzerland.
Many experts believe the "triple A" in the UK could also be subject to question.The Commission expects that the deficit of the United Kingdom will amount to 8.6% in late 2011, the primary deficit to 5.5%, for a debt ratio almost identical to that of France.
"A red line not to cross"
Faced with repeated questions, the French government assures it will take all necessary steps to meet its deficit reduction targets in order to quickly lower the debt ratio in the country.
It has already announced it would reduce the need to "niche" amputate tax revenues of the state in a proportion higher than the 3.0 billion expected for 2012 for now.
"The 'triple A' was confirmed by the three agencies and it was a red line not to cross on deficit reduction," said Saturday a source familiar with the Finance Minister Baroin. "It will result in measures in the draft budget law and the bill for funding Social Security in 2012 to be presented to the Cabinet in September."
The French government is committed to reducing the public deficit to 5.7% of GDP end of 2011, 4.6% in late 2012, 3% and 2% end 2013 end 2014.This path should enable it to as reverse the spread of debt / GDP ratio from 2013 to put it on a downward path.
Paris believes that this ratio will continue to increase, to 85.4% of GDP at end 2011 and 86.9% in late 2012, then it will fall to 86.4% at end 2013 and 84.8% at end 2014.
This path will be updated in September, when presenting the draft budget for 2012 to reflect the increase of some 15 billion euros by 2014 (0.75 percent of GDP) financing needs French , because the new plan to support countries in the euro area in difficulty adopted at the European Summit of 21 July.