Retail sales are backed up against all odds by 0.3% in Germany in July, posting a second consecutive month of decline in monthly, announced Tuesday the Federal Office of Statistics.
Over a year, retail sales rose 0.8%.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a monthly increase of 0.5% and an increase of 1.4% over one year.
The spectacular mergers and acquisitions announced in recent weeks nourish hopes of a general resumption of trading but the French bankers polled by Reuters remain cautious optimism for the fall.
The hostile bid of nearly $ 40 billion launched the world's leading fertilizer Potash or the stock market battle for control of the data storage company 3PAR have been seen by some analysts as a sign announcing a possible new cycle.
"Such operations raise a little mercato" judge a banker, a comparison of sports in the same vein as the one launched during the World Cup soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo by: "The goals is like ketchup: when they arrive, they all come together. "
Announcements and takeover rumors are linked together with a consistent and disturbing intended target size in almost all sectors: automobiles Alfa Romeo, the Australian brewer Foster's with the bank with Nedbank of South Africa, insurance with the UK's Aviva or energy with Polish ENEA.
Figures gathered by Thomson Reuters for the French market is also impressive, even excluding the approximately $ 20 billion Sanofi-Aventis would be willing to spend on the U.S. Genzyme.
THE CONTEXT IS BEST
Transactions involving at least one French company are, at August 25, two times larger in value than in 2009 although it remains far from achieving the speculative frenzy in 2006.
On August 25, 2006, volumes amounted to 239 billion dollars, against 105 billion reached Wednesday.
"Generally, we can say that the context is better than the last two years and the probability of operations is improving, although significant uncertainties remain," Thierry J. Silver, Global Head of 'M & A activity at Societe Generale.
"There is no reason to believe that the major cross-border operations will slow.They are now once again well received by shareholders when the companies have demonstrated their ability to cope with the crisis, "said the banker.
The poor market performance since the beginning of the year is still a risk factor and observers recall that many transactions or IPOs had to be canceled after the crash loosened markets in the first quarter .
MOTION FRAGILE
"We are seeing a recovery in 2010, but this movement will remain fragile until the current uncertainty about valuations persist," the judge for his part in a research note Rivalland Jean-Claude, a lawyer with Allen & Overy in Paris.
The degradation of the sovereign rating of Ireland by Standard & Poor's has also recalled Tuesday that the euro zone was not yet out of the rut and the specter of a relapse of the U.S. economy is also a source of concern.
"The problems on the sovereign credit may resurface, CFOs remain cautious because they do not want to take full credit crunch, they must restructure their debts after a major operation," noted for its share Philip Caraman, a banker from UBS to Paris.
"As long as there is no more visible on sovereign risk, the volumes remain as low as three or four years," Judge said.
For Monique Cohen, managing partner of private equity firm Apax, one of the keys to continued activity is the continued financing of transactions by banks, a vital issue for the private equity industry.
"We can not consider access to the debt as an asset of the moment," she said, noting however that "no new restrictions on debt, many LBO (leveraged transactions) should be provided be in September.
To some bankers, corporate strategic imperatives also explain that they go ahead even if the timing is not ideal.
Some major transactions announced or expected to emerge this logic rather than a genuine recovery in overall mergers and acquisitions, they believe.
"In pharma we got to a point where the economy is good or bad, the problems must be addressed," said a banker based in London.
Large groups such as Sanofi-Aventis and not have enough new molecules for activity in the coming years and must grow through acquisitions.
Similarly, some companies must gain control of new technologies or new markets and therefore have to attack even when conditions are not ideal.
"It's a matter of life or death," Judge the same banker.
The Canadian group called Potash Monday its shareholders to reject hostile takeover bid from mining giant BHP Billiton and said he was discussing with other possible suitors for an alternative giving it a better value.
The world's largest producer of potash added in a statement expected to bring proposals have higher than 39 billion dollars (30.7 billion euros) made by BHP or other strategic options.
Discussions were held with several parties in order to generate higher offers, he said.
According to Bloomberg, Potash has been contacted by the Chinese and Brazilian Vale Sinochem.
The action Potash gained 1% in pre-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange, to $ 151.
The action BHP gained about 2% in London, to 1858.5 pence.
The U.S. stocks have ended without major trend Wednesday as investors wondering about the tone set by the Fed in the minutes of the last meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee.
The Federal Reserve said that its members should be prepared to adopt new measures to support the economy if the environment deteriorates.
See Fed talk about slowing down and hear that she may have to provide more support and cash undoubtedly shaken the markets, "said Bruce Zaro, chief investment strategist for Delta Global Advisors.
The Dow Jones, which includes the thirty most important values of American industry, was up 0.04% to 10.366.72 points, the S & P 500 index fund managers, dropped 0.02% to 1095.17 points.
The Nasdaq's side showed signs of resistance, clinching 0.35% to 2224.84 points, thanks to technology, supported by better than expected results released Tuesday by Intel. The title of the Informatics Group closed up 1.67% to 21.36 dollars.
Investors have also learned the consequences of the publication of statistics showing that business inventories had risen less sharply than expected in the United States in May while sales fell for the first time since March 2009.
The S & P showing variations of values related to consumption has dropped 0.54%.Abercrombie & Fitch has lost 0.83% to 35.93 dollars while JCPenney yielded 0.86% to 22.99 dollars.
The bank has also been the subject of intense clearances pending the results of resistance testing is suffered by 91 European banks.
The KBW index of sectoral sector fell 1.61%.
A reversal of the trend, GlaxoSmithKline closed up 1.76% to 36.35 dollars after the positive vote from the Food and Drug Administration on a diabetic, developed by the laboratory.
General Motors expects to publish in July a notice specifying the terms of an IPO that could reach 15 to $ 20 billion, said a source familiar with the matter.
In addition, GM's talks with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo in a deal allowing the public to have easier access to car loans from dealers, said two people familiar with the discussions.
The managing director of GM Ed Whitacre and other executives have said their preference for an IPO this year.Bankers expect an IPO from 10 to 20 billion dollars per sale of a portion of the state participation is 60.8%.
15-20 billion, the IPO would be GM's most prominent feature in the U.S. since the $ 19.7 billion from Visa in March 2008, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
This is also one of the largest IPOs ever held in the United States.
The Treasury has made 50 billion dollars in aid to GM in 2009, including 43 billion in cash and nearly seven billion of direct loans.
The automaker has repaid the loans in April.
GM was not immediately available.
The British oil giant BP has already spent 1,250 billion dollars trying to contain the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, "he said Monday, indicating also be collected Saturday a total of 10,500 barrels after the installation of a funnel flight.
Between 3 and 5 June, BP and 16,600 barrels of oil collected with this new device.
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The amount advanced by the group does not include $ 360 million promised for the construction of artificial islands to Louisiana, he said.
"The optimization (device) continues and we hope to improve the collection in the coming days, but it will be some days yet before we can evaluate the success of this attempt at containment," BP said in a statement.
BP also said it was too early to quantify the total costs of the oil spill caused by the explosion late April of the platform Deepwater Horizon, in which 11 employees were killed.
The U.S. stock markets opened Monday with no real direction, oscillating between higher and lower, the announcement of a rise in industrial orders in Germany in April was not enough to allay fears about the financial difficulties of Hungary.
Rising in the very first exchanges, the Dow Jones 0.14% yielded a few minutes later at 9917.84 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.14% to 1063.37 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27% to 2213.23 points.
In the wake of the Asian and European stock exchanges, markets always react negatively to the budget problems of Hungary after a government spokesman said Friday that the country was unlikely to escape a crisis comparable to that experienced by Greece.
Hungary will have to cut spending by about one to 1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to fulfill the goals set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) this year but the Countries must also revive growth, said Monday the Minister of Economy.
Through several interventions aimed at calming investor fears, Gyorgy Matolcsy said that Hungary will stick to its objective of a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP.
Speaking on CNBC, the Hungarian Minister of Economy said that there had been a number of failures in communication last week and added: "It is absolutely clear that Hungary is not Greece" .
On Saturday, the Hungarian government had already said to stick to its target of 3.8% deficit to GDP ratio in 2010 and was then considered "exaggerated" the official statements that had contributed to a downturn on the eve of Scholarships and a weaker euro.
"We will stick at 3.8% budget deficit this year, it was agreed with the IMF and the EU and accepted by the government and there is no doubt about it, we will stick to this figure "said Gyorgy Matolcsy.
"On the one hand, it is clear that austerity plan was not necessary. On the other hand, no recovery plan for the budget is considered.We will reduce budgetary spending and we will increase revenues and is the action plan of the new government. "
He also reiterated the government's plans for a tax cut, which does raise some questions among analysts about the ability of Budapest to meet its target budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP this year.
INVESTOR Perplexed
"We can not help being perplexed when the Hungarian authorities speak of a much larger budget deficit than expected and at the same time they exclude austerity measures and instead promise of tax cuts," said Lars Christensen, an analyst at Danske Bank.
Investors also continue to be skeptical since the early exchanges, the Budapest Stock Exchange fell more than 5%, while the euro continued to trade at least $ 1.20 and the forint vis-retreated à-vis the euro.
Bank stocks such as OTP Bank and FHB are particularly challenged, the first yielding 4.55%, after having lost 10%, while the second lost 3.41% at 7:30 GMT.
According to the Hungarian press, the Hungarian government could tax the banks to achieve its economic goals.
Gyorgy Matolcsy said on CNBC that by the end of May, 87% of the annual target budget deficit has already reached.
Most economists believe that Hungary is in a stronger position than that of Greece, its deficits and debt levels are not as high as those in Athens.
In fact, the Hungarian government debt has reached about 80% of GDP in 2009, against 133% for Greece expected this year. Budapest also has a surplus on current account last year and reduced its budget deficit to 4% after significant reductions in its spending.
However, the government nonetheless began Saturday a three-day meeting. The announcement of a program of measures is expected by the end of the day.
Gyorgy Matolcsy noted in particular a proposal for the removal of 20% of the 58 different categories of taxes.He hoped that a radical program of tax cuts three years could be launched this year.
