The growth slowdown coupled with the dynamism of the labor force will not help to reduce the number of unemployed, estimated employment center in its economic outlook. Agency employment center in Nice
Employment center does not provide for improvement on the unemployment front table and at best a stabilization of the number of job seekers in 2011 and 2012 and, at worst, a deepening if growth turned out lower than forecast government. "The slowdown in job creation combined with the dynamism of the labor force should not be allowed to initiate a decline in unemployment," said employment center in its economic outlook published Tuesday, October 4.
For 2011, the Agency plans to increase the number of job seekers without any activity of 5000 and 78,000 by including persons who have reduced activity.These predictions are based on a growth assumption of 1.75%, made by the government. Next year, "unemployment started to decline," if growth remained at 1.7% (assuming the government), with a decline in the number of job seekers with no activity on the order of 5000 and 12,000 by integrating people with reduced activity.
However, "if growth slowed in 2012, unemployment would continue to grow," said employment center. Based on a growth assumption of 1.4% (the IMF), the number of job seekers with no activity would increase by about 27,000.The prospect of a "stabilization of unemployment seems reasonable, except major accident" by the end of the year, said at a press briefing Christian Charpy, general manager of employment center.
Job creation is not strong enough to absorb the increase of the labor force
But, "unemployment will not reach the level it had before the entry into recession in early 2008," noted Bernard Ernst, director of studies of employment center who recalled that in previous crises of 1974 and 1992 the Unemployment had found "quite quickly" its pre-crisis. These forecasts are more optimistic than those of UNEDIC (unemployment insurance) that, based on growth in 2012 of 1.2% (consensus of economists) has provided an increase of 36,700 unemployed with no activity this year and 55,500 next year. "At this stage, a forecast of 1.2% in 2012 seems overly pessimistic," said Mr.Charpy.
Employment center provides, in addition, 130,000 net new jobs this year by companies affiliated with unemployment insurance, but the momentum is down (44 000 in the second half, against 96,000 in the first). In 2012, job creation should remain the same (126 000) if growth remained at 1.7% but reach only 101,000, with growth slowing to 1.4%. These new jobs do not seem sufficient to reduce unemployment because they are less than the increase in the labor force estimated at 140,000 or 150,000 per year.
According to Bernard Ernst, the labor force could grow more than expected after the announcement by INSEE in mid-May to strong growth in first quarter (0.9%).The prospect of an upturn in the economy brought on the labor market of people (youth, women etc) that were not previously found that increased enrollment in the employment center lists the "first mover" and people signing up for a "return to work," he said. "Registration for employment center are not independent of the economy" said Mr. Charpy.